by Jared Levy on June 3, 2010
The short-term fate of S&P 500 (and the rest of the market, for that matter) face some relatively high expectations for non-farm payroll jobs tomorrow. The consensus among analysts is for the addition of more than 500,000 jobs, but I am seeing indications actually closer to 520,000. As I stated yesterday, this would be the largest monthly addition of jobs in the 10 years of data that I have reviewed. The estimates have actually gone up since earlier in the week.
In yesterday’s blog, I noted the lack-luster BLS metropolitan employment and unemployment report that was released earlier this week. In addition to that report, ADP said Wednesday that 55,000 private sector jobs were added in May, about 50% of what analysts were expecting.
Several sources have pointed out that about 150,000 jobs will be coming from the 2010 census hiring, which, of course, is temporary. So in reality, if you back out the 150,000, you’re left with more than 350,000 “real” jobs added. From a statistical standpoint, the chances do not look good with both the BLS and ADP reports showing shortfalls.
Granted, there have been large divergences and even some contradictions over the years between ADP numbers and the actual jobs number. One thing you can count on is volatility (in either direction). Historically, on average, the release of non-farm payroll data has added volatility not only to the equity markets, but to the FX and credit markets as well.
What is even more interesting is that the S&P closed today just a couple dollars below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of 1,106.25. The index’s 20-day SMA is just a couple dollars higher than the 200-day, coming in at 1,111.55.