Mar. 10, 2014 – 5:23 – WSJ’s James Freeman, aviation consultant Mike Boyd, Chapwood Funds’ Jared Levy, and Sean Cassidy of the Airline Pilots Association discuss the mystery of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight.
I obviously had much more to say here; I’ve attached some of my rough notes on the subject.
My thoughts and prayers go out to the families and friends of those lost.
MH370 Rough Notes:
Theories are all speculation…. (I spoke with two friends today who fly 777s weekly across the Atlantic)
- I believe that there was most likely a completely sudden and catastrophic occurrence (i.e. explosion or something that caused the crew to lose consciousness)
- If there was a developing problem, the crew would have notified ATC and/or there would have been warnings / distress signals transmitted
- Boeing is also getting data constantly from 777s; they are alerted directly if there are abnormalities in the aircraft function.
- Yes the wing tip was repaired (by Boeing), but I don’t think that has anything to do with it. Even a partial wing tip failure probably wouldn’t have resulted in an un-flyable condition.
- Even if there was an inflight breakup (by exceeding speed, etc) there would have been warnings and distress calls.
- Planes don’t usually just “disappear” – The military is always watching. If the plane was descending as a “whole aircraft”, even if partially handicap, someone would see radar returns.
- Do you think we could just fly a 777 into Russia or China with no one noticing?
- The plane is 200 feet across and 210 feet long by 60 feet in height..
- Nothing makes sense and logic is extremely hard to apply here.
- Malaysia actually has a good pilot reputation; it’s unlikely that every member of the crew made an error that caused this incident.
- -especially given the recent 777 crash in San Francisco.
- There could have been spotty civilian radar coverage at lower altitudes over the South China Sea
- I don’t believe that we have all the information related to the crash.
- Boeing collects data from systems directly, why aren’t we hearing about that?
Parallels to Air France Atlantic crash?
- Both planes disappeared without a distress signal
- The bulk wreckage of the Air France flight was discovered two years after the accident.
- Five days after the crash, bodies of some of the victims were found by rescue workers.
- An extensive three-day search for MH370 has not yielded any clue about where the plane might have crashed.
- In the case of the French airliner, the flight went through a thunderstorm which affected the controls.
- The weather was absolutely clear in the flight path of MH370
- Black box of Flight 447 revealed that pilots had no idea of the real danger they were in or the impending crash.
- They experienced a situation that they couldn’t deal with and did not call for help
- I don’t think the Boeing 777 should be compared to the Airbus 330
- It seems likely to me that there was a sudden, catastrophic event that rendered the crew unable to communicate or control the aircraft.